Objectives

ECODRIVE will assess, model and further the predictive understanding of changes in the trophodynamic structure and function within the North Sea relative to the different drivers of ecosystem change. Drivers include those acting via climate change and variability as well as those acting more regionally via anthropogenic forcing (e.g., fisheries and eutrophication) to impact trophodynamic structure and function (i.e., functional biodiversity). The approach includes available long-term time series data on all trophic levels (from phytoplankton to fish), climate indices, as well as modelled (climate-forced) estimates of abiotic and biotic factors.

ECODRIVE research focuses on

1. fluxes of organisms and nutrients into the North Sea and will contrast advection through the Channel versus transport into the region from the northern boundary (spatial analyses), will
2. disentangle the contribution of inter-annual to multi-decadal forcing patterns to observed differences in the periodicity (temporal analyses) of changes in species abundance and composition in the study region and, in this manner,
3. understand the drivers of ecosystem change at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and
4. enable forecast (scenario test) future North Sea trophodynamic structure and function based upon different IPCC (climate) and anthropogenic (eutrophication, resource exploitation) scenarios.

ECODRIVE is designed to

1. provide a better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios),
2. construct usable climate change indicators, and
3. improve the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk management (Phillipart et al. 2007). This proposal directly contributes to the objectives expressed by the European Science Foundation.